NYC luxury demand is structurally strong today — Manhattan logged ~$12B in luxury sales in 2025 and $4M+ contract velocity has carried into 2026. But four forces are converging on a specific asset class — $5M+ non-primary residences held by foreign-national owners. Each one alone moves the calculus. Together they argue forcefully for monetizing into the current bid, before the bid itself begins to discount what is coming.
What follows is the argument, in five charts.
On April 14–15, 2026, Governor Hochul and Mayor Mamdani jointly announced NYC's first proposed pied-à-terre tax — an annual recurring surcharge on non-primary residences valued at $5M or more. It is not a transfer tax — it is an ongoing annual carry, with no sunset provision in the current proposal.
The political alignment behind this proposal is stronger than any prior attempt. Market participants we speak with broadly expect passage; the open question is whether buyers begin pricing the new carry into bids before or after enactment.
USD/CNY peaked above 7.30 in late 2023. It sits at 6.82 today. MUFG, J.P. Morgan and RBC all project further USD weakness through 2026–27. RBC estimates the dollar was ~15% overvalued versus PPP late last year.
Same $10M sale, five different days. The gold bar is the world we live in today. The red bar is the world the FX desks are forecasting for 2027.
Per the NAR International Buyer Report (2025), the share of US foreign real-estate buyers from Mainland China fell from 40.4% in 2019 to 18.5% in 2025. Per Gulf News and Business Standard, US visa denial rates for Chinese nationals climbed back above 25% in 2025; total US visa approvals fell 11% that year, with China among the hardest-hit cohorts.
For a $5M+ NYC pied-à-terre, the foreign-buyer pool is structurally contracting. Compressed demand compresses future exit multiples.
Per the Committee of 100's March 2026 tracking, 27 states are presently considering 82 active bills restricting foreign property ownership. 64% of the 468 total bills introduced since 2021 specifically target Chinese nationals. 54 have already passed.
Florida SB 264 was upheld constitutional in November 2025 — setting precedent for broader restrictions. NY Senate Bill S8490 (2025) would ban PRC/CCP entities from owning any New York property. Federal-level CFIUS review of foreign real estate near sensitive sites is expanding.
China's domestic property market is in its sixth consecutive year of correction. Brookings characterizes a structural bottoming-out, not a sharp rebound. Goldman Sachs estimates the downturn alone subtracted ~2pp/yr from China GDP growth in 2024 and 2025.
Per GAM Investments (Jan 2026), the average Chinese household carries ~70% of its wealth in domestic property. For an owner with that level of single-asset-class concentration, the NYC residence is the most valuable single piece of liquidity available outside that exposure. Monetizing it now — while NYC pricing and FX remain favorable — converts an illiquid, foreign-currency holding into liquid capital, to be redeployed however the owner and their advisors see fit.
In preparing this brief we looked at where the marquee Manhattan luxury closings actually happen — and found, as we'd expect, that the attorneys we've observed as most active in this asset class concentrate their closings across the same handful of supertalls. The map below: where Yang has personally closed, drawn from public ACRIS records.
If we assume (i) the PAT proposal passes substantially as drafted, (ii) buyers demand a modest discount to reflect the new annual carry, and (iii) USD/CNY drifts toward current bank-house forecasts, a $10M property today could realize roughly $1M less in net value twelve months from now under this scenario — the same asset, twelve months apart.
Illustrative model only, not a prediction. Outcomes will vary with the timing and final form of any enacted PAT, market response, and FX path.
| Component | USD impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sell today (full value) | $10.00M | Within current $4M+ NYC luxury demand · ~$12B 2025 sales |
| Modeled bid compression post-PAT | −$500K | ~5% — our estimate based on broker feedback to early carry concerns |
| PAT surcharge — Year 1 (if enacted) | −$45K | Hochul/Mamdani proposed schedule applied to $10M |
| Modeled FX drift (USD/CNY toward 6.40) | −$500K | Aligned with MUFG / J.P. Morgan 2026–27 USD outlook on full $10M repatriation |
| Net proceeds if you wait twelve months | $8.95M | ~$1.05M from current — illustrative |
Today's NYC luxury bid has not yet discounted PAT, has not yet contracted further on visa and legislative pressure, and is being placed in a USD that remains historically elevated. Each of these will normalize into the bid — separately. Stacked, they are the cost of waiting.
Jordan Shea and Wen Shi — Real Estate Salespersons, Douglas Elliman Real Estate. We work the $5M+ Manhattan residential market in Mandarin and English. The argument above is the conversation we have with foreign-national owners every week — timing, FX, legislation, the modeled cost of waiting. When a candidate in your orbit is ready to hear it, we'd like to be the call you make.
Yang Cao, Esq.
Partner · Yeung & Wang PLLC
Residential Co-Chair · AREAA Manhattan
Jordan Shea · NYS DOS Lic. # 10401225637
Wen Shi · NYS DOS Lic. # 10401389203
Douglas Elliman Real Estate · April 25, 2026